I’m sure you are asking yourself can metro Denver home prices sustain the phenomenal growth we have seen in the past five years or is it all going to come crashing down? Time for a little economics refresher on supply and demand.
What drives demand for housing in Denver?
Population Growth.
We have seen 269k people move into Denver in the last 5 years and it is forecasted that an estimated 270k will come here before the end of 2020.
Job Growth.
Denver 2016 employment = 1.6 million jobs with 45k added in 2016. Employers report that there is no one left to hire and they have to look outside the state to fill positions. We have a very balanced economy and are not dependent on oil and gas as we were in the past.
Personal income.
Is growing in Colorado. Since 2010 metro Denver household income has increased by 23%.
Rents have soared!
Since the end of 2011 median apartment rents in metro Denver have risen 52% from $870 to $1329 which is forcing renters to reconsider the benefits of buying a home. Investors on the other hand are driving demand by snapping up available properties in the hope of cashing in on these exorbitant rents.
Did I mention in 2016 Denver was the #1 city in the country to live in by U. S. News and World Report?
How have we handled the supply side of this equation?
Well not so well. We have a limited supply of homes for sale as has been well documented by the media. The population of metro Denver grew by 120k between 2014 and 2015 which would require 48,000 new homes and apartments.
Builders managed to complete 30,388 new units. Not entirely their fault. The uptick in demand for building permits has created a backlog with approval of permits stretching out to 8.2 months in Denver. Builders have a shortage of construction workers with one new worker entering the industry for ever three retiring. That one new worker is likely to go into a commercial job where pay rates are higher than residential construction.
So if you can’t build homes quick enough you have to get existing homeowners to sell. Well that has also been difficult. Why? HomeAdvisor’s survey discovered that Denver home owners are the third happiest in the country, so why would they go anywhere else? An American Housing survey revealed that Denver had the highest rate of home improvements in the country. Another sign that metro homeowners are not budging.
So what does this all mean for the long term?
Zillow’s chief economists believes that Denver’s growth has been fueled by solid underlying economics fundamentals like strong job and wage growth, true housing demand and limited supply. Not speculation. Local economists believe that we have 10 more years of growth if all the demand factors stay in place. Denver has now become a destination city. The only thing that might derail this growth is if interest rates rise too fast and too far.
So to my prospective buyers and sellers, now is a great time to jump into the market 🙂
If you’re interested in selling your home anywhere in South Denver metro, Centennial, Greenwood Village and Littleton areas, give me a call at 720.307.5280. Tell me what would work best for you?
Source: A big thank you to Lonnie Glessner for the information in this post. If you are in the market for a mortgage and seasoned lender, head over to novahomeloans.com